guest column:Respect Gwenzi

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) missed its 10% year-end target for 2019 but it, however, denies that it ever set this target and instead said it had targeted 15% by year-end. However according to a Press statement currently uploaded on RBZ’s website released after the October sitting, the committee clearly set a month-on-month inflation target of between 10% and 12% by year-end.

Against this target, the year end month-on-month inflation outturn came in at 17%, a wide miss. The MPC now forecasts a single digit month-on-month inflation target by end of first quarter and a 50% annual outturn by year-end, premised on exchange rate stability and monetary targeting.

There is scope for further month-on-month moderation based on a stable exchange rate. The exchange rate has been coming off at a much slower rate over the last three months compared to the preceding quarter. Data released by RBZ suggests that flows on the interbank significantly improved in the final quarter of 2019. The annual outturn was at $1,5 billion with $700 million of that total being traded in Q4:19 alone, compared to just $136 million in Q3. Interestingly, the exchange rate tumbled by over 40% in Q3:19 compared to a below 5% decline in the final quarter.

What this suggests is that improved flows on the interbank in Q4:19 helped keep the exchange rate more stable in the final quarter. However there are other factors such as money supply (base money) which significantly rose in Q3:19, which should be factored in as well as the impact of demand.

It is very worrying that the margin of variance between the interbank and the parallel rate widened in the final quarter coming from a conservative outturn in Q3, almost putting to doubt the solidness of Q4 trades.

It would follow that if trades in the final quarter were over double those of Q3, the gap between the interbank rate and the parallel market rate would close, especially where base money is contracting. The parallel market premium closed the year at 35% from 15% in September, a demonstration that more and more demand is not being met on the interbank despite the growth in absolute trades. What is the this demand level?

According to 2018 trade statistics, average daily imports amounted close to $20 million and given the deep shave in 2019, the average imports have slowed down to $13 million a day. This means the country needs $13 million a day or at a more conservative level $10 million to cover for imports demand. Now $1,5 billion traded since February 25 translates to about $5 million a day, which equates to below half of the total demanded forex per day, according to ZimStat data. What this exposes is that there is a far much greater demand of forex than is presently supplied and that disequilibrium is a source of parallel market widening premiums.

To put this into context with regards to inflation outlook, it means if RBZ maintains the status quo of tighter controls on interbank trades, demand will find comfort on the parallel market which would naturally widen further the black market premium. As is the psychology of pricing on the market, prices of goods will naturally follow, rising to maintain the US dollar margin.

It is therefore not a given that inflation is on its way down as the widening parallel market variance shows.

Trade statistics equally show that net exports diminished by about 15% in 2019, which means Zimbabwe’s ability to earn foreign currency has been diminishing.

The MPC also acknowledges that monetary targeting will not be possible if government fails to accommodate subsidy expenditure within its budget, a scenario which may force RBZ to inject new money. Once this happens the base money component of money supply will be affected and as a result markets disrupted. An example of base money effect is that of August 2019 when RBZ injected new flows to cover for outstanding US dollar-denominated Treasury Bills. The result was a run on the currency as new money chased scarce hard currency resulting in a 30% plunge in the exchange rate in September.

Given the ambitious 2020 budget by Zimbabwe’s earning standards (disparity between Zimra collections and targeted expenditure), save to say the budgeted amounts are not enough to cover for recurrent expenditure, it would follow that huge pressure will mount as we get into the second quarter of the year.
This will mainly be driven by the drought effect, underperforming revenue collections, civil service incapacitation and industry production
cutbacks on power and demand dearth.
There are therefore more headwinds on the outlook which brings us to a conclusion that inflation will stun authorities and remain on an upward trajectory.

BY KEVIN MAPASURE

CAPTAIN Sean Williams hit a century as Zimbabwe put up 352 runs for the loss of six wickets on the opening day of their second Test against Sri Lanka at Harare Sports Club yesterday.
Regis Chakabva and Tino Mutombodzi will today resume Zimbabwe’s first innings accumulation on 31 and 10 runs respectively.

The hosts were reasonably happy with their efforts as they employed a more positive batting approach compared to what they did in the first Test that they went on to lose.

Zimbabwe started off slowly in the first session, but picked up a bit of momentum after winning the toss.

They yielded 96 runs that came at the expense of the scalps of Prince Masvaure (9) and Craig Ervine (12).

Brendan Taylor’s knock mirrored Zimbabwe’s intentions as he reached his half century off just 46 deliveries.

He moved on to 62 before he fell to the Lakmal who rearranged his castle behind.

He was obviously disappointed that he did not reach the century mark considering he was well set.

It was the collaboration between Williams and Sikandar Raza which was the fulcrum of Zimbabwe’s good total as they put together a 159 run fifth wicket partnership.

Williams scored 10 fours and three maximums on his way to 107 runs before he perished after being bowled by Dhananjaya de Silva.

Before that, Raza had already made his way back to the hut after contributing 72 runs.

Williams said he was pleased with the runs they put on the board yesterday, but felt they could have done better.

“I think it was a fantastic day for us. I think the mindset for the players is changing and the way the boys are playing now is fearless,” he said. “Overall it was a very good day.

I would take 350 in a day any day, but six wickets down? I would have taken four; it was down to some bad shot selections. I played a terrible shot to get out and expose two new batsmen to the new ball. Such bad decisions have to stop. I could have gone on to score a half century or even a double 100.”

He said his target is to see the team score at least 450 in the first innings.

He is confident that Chakabva and Mutombodzi, who is a debutante, can steer Zimbabwe to a big score.

In the first Test, Zimbabwe scored 188 runs on the first day and getting to 352 marked a big improvement as they seek to level the two match series.

BY SHARON SIBINDI

FASHION designer Samkeliso Mpofu of Sanah Designs said she built her own empire through hard work and perseverance.

Mpofu, who considers her tape measure her best friend, was recently featured in a top South African men’s Magazine, GQ, after taking part at the Mozambique Fashion Week.

After having lost both parents in childhood, she used the tragedy to fuel her zeal.

“I lost my parents when I was so young, luckily my siblings took care of me,” she said, adding that losing her parents made her strong and self-dependent.

Mpofu said she discovered that working for someone else was growing other people’s empires instead of building her own legacies.

“I wanted my own empire, so people and my children would know I lived and I was here. I want to leave something behind that my children and family would survive and pass it on to another generation, above all being your own boss, the sky is the limit. That is what motivates me,” she said.

She urged up-and-coming fashion designers not to give up and to have a vision for brand identity.

“This means that, as a young fashion designer, you need to know exactly what you are doing. Be clear in your mind why you want to start a business in the first place,” she said.

Mpofu said she used fashion to communicate things people did not say and sacrifices were inescapable in the trade.

“Being a designer requires a lot, you have to focus on building yourself first and your brand then when it’s up and running you can then build a family,” she said.

BY VANESSA GONYE

Health authorities have swiftly moved to limit possible ways the deadly coronavirus originating from China can get into the country by increasing screening and monitoring of possible threats at all points of entry.

The Chinese city of Wuhan is the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, where 81 deaths have been confirmed, 3 000 cases reported, of which 400 are critical, while cases have been reported in 10 other countries, including Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.

Speaking during a tour of screening and control facilities at Robert Gabriel Mugabe International Airport in Harare yesterday, Health minister Obadiah Moyo said they were doing everything possible and were on high alert to make sure the virus does not find its way into the country.

“If the virus is to come to Zimbabwe, we have to catch it at the ports of entry. Screening points have been set up at all major ports of entry. Every aspect of the system is highly functional and this is not a condition from within, so it should be easier to deal with,” he said.

Moyo said an arrangement had been made to contain suspected carriers of the virus until they are cleared.

“If one is confirmed to be having symptoms of the virus as they come into the country, they will be taken for care at the PSMAS Clinic, which is just across the road (at the airport). If they test positive, they will be ferried to Wilkins Hospital, which we have set up as an isolation centre,” he said.

“Our staff at the two major referral centres need to be trained to deal with the situation in case an outbreak takes place. For now, we keep our fingers crossed. We hope people coming in are safe and if they are not, we follow up on them for at least 21 days.”

Moyo said government was treating the matter as a security threat while they will depend on, Kaletra, an antiretroviral, which has been taken as an emergency drug to treat the virus.

“We, however, need to stock-up more on medicine which is recommended to fight the virus, even though we have supply of Kaletra already in the country,” he said.

Zimbabwe has been found wanting in terms of disaster preparedness, with past cholera outbreaks and the 2019 Cyclone Idai serving as proof of the deficiency in alertness.

BY PHYLLIS MBANJE

FOR decades, women across the globe have been practising douching of their intimate parts and this has not always been about hygiene as is generally believed.

Douching, according to WomensHealth.gov, is washing or cleaning out the inside of the female organ with water or other fluids. In 2018, a South African general practitioner, Sindisiwe van Zyl, who also has a special interest in HIV, said most women make their own douching concoctions using water, vinegar, baking soda, yoghurt, cinnamon or iodine.

Iodine is commonly used by gynaecologists after major surgery.

However besides the practice being popular especially among Africans, Zimbabweans included, furious debates have been fronted largely on health implications as well as perceptions around what makes a man happy.

A top British newspaper even reported that women were falling prey to some industries that were making money by preying on women’s fears about hygiene.

Even in Zimbabwe some unscrupulous people are racking in thousands of dollars selling these concoctions which have no empirical scientific evidence to back the claims, particularly of the sexual enhancement by “tightening” one’s organ.

The betadine douche, sold for a whopping US$40, is currently trending. Getting it, however, is no easy feat as those involved will only sell to people within their circles.

NewsDay, acting on a tip-off, tracked down one of the distributors of the product which has become a hit in Harare. The woman was initially suspicious.

“Who gave you my number? I do not know you. I deal mostly with people from my group, my friends,” she said.

She, however, later gave in and revealed that the douche had actually sold out and that she would be travelling next week for more supplies.

“The last two were bought by a man. I suspect one was for the wife and the other for the small house,” she said.

The woman said the product was “working miracles” for many women. Initially, she said it was for general hygiene of the female intimates and those with fungal infections but later hinted it was also being used to enhance sexual pleasure.

“It tightens the female organ and that gives men pleasure during intimacy. I have received many testimonies,” she said.

The label on the kit reads: “For the treatment of bacterial, fungal and non-specific vaginitis and/or for cleansing and deodorising”.

The Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe (MCAZ) has repeatedly warned against the influx of illegal drugs mostly sex enhancers, but these have fallen on deaf ears.

With the current harsh economic environment and the chaos at the public hospitals, many people are now resorting to the street doctors and pharmacists who are cheaper.

But some drugs have specific storage conditions which are obviously not being observed.

Most of the drugs are smuggled through the borders and Zimra Commissioner-General, Faith Mazani, last year said the authority could only detect consignments that come through the border posts while those smuggled using boats were difficult to intercept.

She also cited inadequate resources as another hindrance to halting these practices.

Health implications
According to the National Centre for Biotechnology Information, douching has been associated with many adverse outcomes including pelvic inflammatory disease, bacterial vaginosis, cervical cancer, low birth weight, preterm birth, human immunodeficiency virus transmission, sexually transmitted diseases, ectopic pregnancy, recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis, and infertility.

Studies conflict, however, and the strength of association vary enormously between studies.

Many potentially confounding factors blur the epidemiologic assessment of the consequences of douching. Douching in the United States is more common among African-American women.

Writing on her blog, Spotlight, van Zyl said the female organ is a self-cleaning organ and required no assistance.

The symptoms of bacterial vaginosis are a watery/milky vaginal discharge with a very fishy smell.

“It smells like tinned pilchards. It’s unmistakable,” explained van Zyl.

Women who douche regularly may also have difficulty falling pregnant.

Others have also used talc powder but many women have later claimed it contributed to ovarian cancer.

In a landmark ruling in 2018, 22 women from St Louis, an independent city in Missouri in the US were awarded $4,14 billion in punitive damages, after claiming their ovarian cancer had been caused by the use of Johnson & Johnson baby talc because it contained asbestos particles.

BY MTHANDAZO NYONI

THE European Union-funded Bulawayo leather cluster is looking forward to increasing exports of its products into the region after successfully securing a market in Namibia recently, an official has said.

In an interview with NewsDay Business after the European Union ambassador to Zimbabwe, Timo Olkkonen had toured the centre last week, leather cluster secretary-general Fungai Zvinondiramba said opportunities for their products in the region were abound.

“The laid-down capacity in this factory right now is 3 000 pairs of shoes a day. Currently, we are making about 150 pairs per day. In the past three days, we have been working on an order of about 450 pairs and we intend to dispatch them next week (this week) to Namibia,” he said.

“We have got the local market, the local guys. What happens is that they either come as retailers to buy products and resell at their shops, or (we get) guys who come and buy for their children or themselves.

“There is this thing I have learnt over the years that we call indirect exporting, where actually your product hits the export market, but you are not benefiting. The guy comes here, orders 200 pair of shoes. We make the shoes and he takes them to Zambia.”

To counter indirect exports, Zvinondiramba said they were exporting their products directly into the region.

The project has 25 members who will be transformed into shareholders.

It is located at the Clothing Industry Pension Fund Industrial Park and was funded by the EU to the tune of about 250 000 euros.

In the next five years, Zvinondiramba said their vision was to have more women and youth running the factory.

They also intend to make the factory an export processing zone.

Government has been urging small-to-medium entrepreneurs to adopt a cluster approach in their operations so as to enjoy economies of scale, which include reduced taxes.

A cluster system involves housing business units that are in the same line of work under one roof and having them order materials communally.

The cluster system, first implemented in Bulawayo, allows business to grow effectively among members of the cluster.

BY TERRY MADYAUTA

FORMER Warriors coach Rahman Gumbo will be coaching in Division One next season committing his future to relegated TelOne.

There were fears that the veteran coach, whose impressive CV includes coaching the national senior team, FC Platinum and winning championships outside the country, would leave after failing to save TelOne from relegation.

Some members of his technical team from last season have already dumped the team, who will be playing in the Central Region Division One this year.

Joel Luphahla has already left the club for a lower league team in Harare, while goalkeeper’s coach Tembo Chuma has joined league champions FC Platinum.

TelOne president Llyod Mthethwa yesterday confirmed that Gumbo is staying put at the Gweru based side and has been given a mandate to guide the team back to the premier league.

“Rahman is our head coach. As you may be aware, we have lost some members of our technical team. We will fill the vacancies in due course,” he said.

TelOne are also willing to buy a franchise to return to the league, but it appears there are no clubs that are disposing of their status.

Gumbo joined the Gweru side midway through the season with a target to save the team from relegation. He made a strong start to his tenure at the club, but lost steam towards the end of the season, culminating in a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Chicken Inn on the last day of the season – a defeat that confirmed their relegation.

Reports suggest that Gumbo will rope in his former assistant at FC Platinum Tendai Chikuni to deputise him this season, while ex-Highlanders goalkeeper’s coach Peter Nkomo is set to replace Chuma.

The pair was seen at Ascot Stadium last week where TelOne were conducting their trials in preparation for the new season.

Meanwhile, King Nadolo, one of the team’s stars from last season is yet to commit his future to the club, with reports that he wants to leave.

The forward is reportedly training with Harare City together with Emmanuel Mandiranga whose contract with TelOne expired at the end of the year.
Emmanuel Zinyama and Innocent Zambezi have also been recalled by their parent club, Harare City.

BY FREEMAN MAKOPA

A ZIMBABWEAN actress and niece to the late veteran author Charles Mungoshi, Patience Mungoshi-Machaka together with her son Takunda, have been roped into an Australian global television series titled Stateless.

Speaking to NewsDay Life & Style from her Australian base, Machaka said she was excited by the development, which she described as a stepping stone in her new career.

“This is a TV series on the Australian ABC channel, but it is going to be global because some of the main actors are based in the United States, United Kingdom and Netherlands,” she said.

“We are hoping this series opens a huge door of opportunities for us and we are happy that we are part of the cast in the new movie. It was lovely to rub shoulders with the highs of the Australian television industry.”

Mungoshi-Machaka said this was her debut attempt at film and they experienced some hurdles, but her desire was to grow in her newfound passion.

The recording, she said, took place between May and July 2019.

“At times we would be required to be on set as early as 5am and for a five-year-old (Takunda), it’s tricky, but we conquered because as soon as we would get to the filming set, Takunda would be all smiles,” she said.

Mungoshi-Machaka plays the role of Doris and her son Takunda plays Solomon in the series, which will be broadcast on ABC every Sunday at 8:40pm starting on March 1 this year.

BY PRAISEMORE SITHOLE

THE opposition MDC has blamed President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government for contributing to the country’s acute food shortages due to its failure to adequately mobilise aid despite receiving enough warnings of the looming climate change-induced famine.

International aid agencies have warned that over 7,7 million people require urgent food aid.

MDC national chairperson Thabitha Khumalo on Thursday last week told party supporters in Bulawayo that government’s lack of disaster preparedness was to blame for the food shortages.

“What is critical is that we needed to prepare for the drought. This drought was spoken about sometime last year because of the issue of global warming, but because they (authorities) do not care about us, we have these food shortages. For them, they will jump into the aeroplanes and enjoy themselves,” Khumalo said.

“By now, we should be hearing that the Tshabalala silos are full, but I would be surprised if there is anything in the silos. They are abusing funds that are supposed to help the needy as they politicise them.”

Last year, Zanu PF members allegedly hijacked a government-sponsored food distribution programme in ward 29 — Magwegwe West, Magwegwe North and Lobengula — and dished out most of the handouts to party members instead of the intended beneficiaries.

Khumalo said citizens should not expect a better life as long as Zanu PF is in charge.

“The government of Zanu PF has made lies look like truth and truth look like lies, peace look like war and war look like peace, and we were told by the government that by 2020, there will be houses for the people, but where are they?” Khumalo said.

“They said 2020, there will be affordable education, but how many students are sitting at home? Never ever listen to them they are grandstanding, just covering for their failure. There will be no mealie meal from those silo shops it’s as simple as that.”

Bulawayo Residents United Association chairperson Winos Dube said most people were not aware of the silo shops, hence they should be advised about their existence and locations so that they access the shops.

Contacted for comment, Information deputy minister Energy Mutodi said he was in church and would only comment today.

“I am currently attending a church service, call me tomorrow,” he said.

Information permanent secretary Ndavaningi Mangwana could not be reached for comment.