To outsiders, it may seem counter-intuitive. ZANU PF has manipulated elections for decades. Why, then, would it fear a referendum more than a general election?
The answer lies in control.
Elections in Zimbabwe are complex, multi-layered and easily disrupted. They can be delayed, re-run, challenged in court or neutralised through institutional capture. Voter apathy, logistical confusion and state dominance of the media all work in the ruling party’s favour.
A referendum is different.
A referendum is blunt. Binary. It strips away party branding and reduces the question to a single national choice. There are no parliamentary seats to distribute, no local power brokers to placate, no opposition candidates to fragment. Just a yes or no.
That simplicity terrifies ZANU PF.
Any attempt to amend the Constitution to extend presidential terms or reset succession rules would inevitably become a referendum on the party itself. It would not be about legal clauses or technical adjustments. It would be about trust, legitimacy and fatigue.
In a country exhausted by economic collapse, currency failures and elite excess, a referendum would mobilise discontent in a way elections often fail to do. Citizens who might stay home on polling day are far more likely to turn out to block something perceived as a power grab.
More importantly, a referendum creates a unified opposition front by default. There is no need for coalition negotiations, candidate selection or messaging discipline. Every disgruntled group, from civil society to churches to opposition supporters, can rally behind a single rejection.
This is why ZANU PF’s internal panic is so intense. The party knows it cannot afford a national moment of clarity. It survives through confusion, fragmentation and managed uncertainty.
With Chamisa back in the political arena, the risk multiplies. A referendum would give him a national platform without the usual electoral constraints. It would allow him to campaign not for office, but for restraint, legality and constitutionalism, messages that resonate far beyond party lines.
ZANU PF understands this. That is why talk of constitutional amendments is loud in rhetoric but thin on execution. The fear is not legal defeat. It is popular humiliation.
In many ways, a referendum would be the most honest political exercise Zimbabwe has seen in years. And that is precisely why the ruling party wants to avoid it.
For a party built on control rather than consent, a direct question to the people is the most dangerous gamble of all.
